Enter your chance of winning and what’s at stake to see whether a call or shove is profitable — and the break-even percentage you need.
Expected value
+$9.5
Profitable in the long run.
Break-even chance needed
29.4%
You need to win at least this often for it to pay.
Poker is decided by a stack of small decisions. You can’t control the cards, but you can control whether each choice is profitable on average. Make enough +EV decisions and the money follows, even through downswings. To turn your equity into a win chance, use the odds calculator; to find the call threshold, use pot odds.
Expected value is the average amount a decision wins or loses if you made it many times. A positive EV (+EV) play makes money in the long run; a negative EV play loses. EV = (chance of winning × amount won) − (chance of losing × amount lost).
Multiply your probability of winning by the amount you gain, then subtract your probability of losing times the amount you lose. If the result is positive, the play is profitable over time. This calculator does the arithmetic and also shows the break-even percentage you’d need.
The minimum chance of winning that makes a decision exactly break even. If you have to risk $50 to win $120, you need to win 50 ÷ (120 + 50) ≈ 29.4% of the time. Win more often than that and the play is +EV.
Pot odds tell you the break-even equity for a call; EV puts a dollar figure on the decision using your actual chance of winning. Use pot odds to find the threshold, and EV to see how much a spot is worth.
EV is only as good as your estimate of the win chance. Use it to compare decisions, not to predict a single hand. This is an educational estimate based on standard poker math and simplifying assumptions — not a guarantee of results or financial advice. Poker involves chance and variance. Rebuy Labs is software for organizing and studying poker; it does not accept wagers or handle player funds. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
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